With elections set for October 28 the heat has been turned up in Icelandic politics. The big questions are which political leaders are most likely to lead the next government, and what parties would make up the coalition necessary to guarantee a majority in parliament. The latest polls answer the first question, but show that the second question is harder to answer.
Two towers on either end of political spectrum
The most recent poll was commissioned by the local newspaper Fréttablaðið, in collaboration with the news site Vísir and TV station Stöð 2. This poll, which was taken yesterday evening, shows that the conservative Independence Party and the Left-Greens dominate the political landscape as the two largest parties.
However, unless the two polar opposites choose to work together, both would need the support of at least two other parties to form a majority government. The poll also shows that a total of eight political parties could manage to get representatives elected to parliament, making for extremely difficult negotiations when it comes to forming a new coalition government.
New right-wing populist party complicates picture
Both the conservative Independence Party and the Left-Green Movement enjoy the support of 23% of voters. This would mean that both parties would get 15 MPs elected to parliament. This means the conservatives would lose 6 MPs, down from 21, while the Left-Greens would add 5, up from 10.
The other big news in the poll is the support for the newly formed right-wing populist People's Party, which enjoys the support of 11% of voters, which would deliver 7 MPs. The main findings of the poll are large movements among the parties which tilt right, and a major increase in the support for the Left-Greens.
The outcome of the election, according to latest poll
A total of eight parties would be elected to parliament (2016 election results are in parenthesis):
Conservative Independence Party: 23% and 15 MPs — (down from 29% and 21 MPs)
Left-Green Movement: 23% and 15 MPs — (up from 15.9% and 10 MPs)
Anti-establishment Pirate Party: 13.7% and 9 MPs — (down from 14.5% and 10 MPs)
Populist People's Party: 11% and 7 MPs — (up from 3.5% and no MPs)
Social Democratic Alliance: 5% and 3 MPs — (no change from 5.7% and 3 MPs)
Center-right Progress Party: 10% and 7 MPs — (down from 11.5% and 8 MPs)
Centrist Bright Future: 7% and 4 MPs — (no change from 7.2% and 4 MPs)
Liberal center-right Restoration: 5% and 3 MPs — (down from 10.5% and 7 MPs)
Neither party has a clear path to power
These results reveal that there are several potential coalition governments which could be formed. As the leadership of the Left Greens has repeatedly rejected ideas the two parties work together the most likely outcomes are broad coalition governments stretching from the center to either the right or left. A majority coalition needs 32 MPs.
Left-Greens (15 MPs) would need the support of one center-right party to form a majority coalition. Working with the Pirate Party (9 MPs), the Social Democrats (3 MPs) and Bright Future (4 MPs) the Left Greens would only have 31 seats. They would therefore need the support of center-right Restoration (3 MPs), center-right Progress Party (7 MPs) or the right-wing populist People's Party (7 MPs).
The Independence Party (15 MPs) might face an easier task forming a coalition. Working with the Progress Party (7 MPs) and People's Party (7 MPs) and the liberal center-right Restoration (3 MPs) a right-wing government could count on 32 seats in Parliament. However, it is highly unlikely that Restoration would work with the People's Party – and Bjarni Benediktsson, the chairman of the Independence Party, has said the party rejects large coalition governments which rest on the support of small parties.
With elections set for October 28 the heat has been turned up in Icelandic politics. The big questions are which political leaders are most likely to lead the next government, and what parties would make up the coalition necessary to guarantee a majority in parliament. The latest polls answer the first question, but show that the second question is harder to answer.
Two towers on either end of political spectrum
The most recent poll was commissioned by the local newspaper Fréttablaðið, in collaboration with the news site Vísir and TV station Stöð 2. This poll, which was taken yesterday evening, shows that the conservative Independence Party and the Left-Greens dominate the political landscape as the two largest parties.
However, unless the two polar opposites choose to work together, both would need the support of at least two other parties to form a majority government. The poll also shows that a total of eight political parties could manage to get representatives elected to parliament, making for extremely difficult negotiations when it comes to forming a new coalition government.
New right-wing populist party complicates picture
Both the conservative Independence Party and the Left-Green Movement enjoy the support of 23% of voters. This would mean that both parties would get 15 MPs elected to parliament. This means the conservatives would lose 6 MPs, down from 21, while the Left-Greens would add 5, up from 10.
The other big news in the poll is the support for the newly formed right-wing populist People's Party, which enjoys the support of 11% of voters, which would deliver 7 MPs. The main findings of the poll are large movements among the parties which tilt right, and a major increase in the support for the Left-Greens.
The outcome of the election, according to latest poll
A total of eight parties would be elected to parliament (2016 election results are in parenthesis):
Conservative Independence Party: 23% and 15 MPs — (down from 29% and 21 MPs)
Left-Green Movement: 23% and 15 MPs — (up from 15.9% and 10 MPs)
Anti-establishment Pirate Party: 13.7% and 9 MPs — (down from 14.5% and 10 MPs)
Populist People's Party: 11% and 7 MPs — (up from 3.5% and no MPs)
Social Democratic Alliance: 5% and 3 MPs — (no change from 5.7% and 3 MPs)
Center-right Progress Party: 10% and 7 MPs — (down from 11.5% and 8 MPs)
Centrist Bright Future: 7% and 4 MPs — (no change from 7.2% and 4 MPs)
Liberal center-right Restoration: 5% and 3 MPs — (down from 10.5% and 7 MPs)
Neither party has a clear path to power
These results reveal that there are several potential coalition governments which could be formed. As the leadership of the Left Greens has repeatedly rejected ideas the two parties work together the most likely outcomes are broad coalition governments stretching from the center to either the right or left. A majority coalition needs 32 MPs.
Left-Greens (15 MPs) would need the support of one center-right party to form a majority coalition. Working with the Pirate Party (9 MPs), the Social Democrats (3 MPs) and Bright Future (4 MPs) the Left Greens would only have 31 seats. They would therefore need the support of center-right Restoration (3 MPs), center-right Progress Party (7 MPs) or the right-wing populist People's Party (7 MPs).
The Independence Party (15 MPs) might face an easier task forming a coalition. Working with the Progress Party (7 MPs) and People's Party (7 MPs) and the liberal center-right Restoration (3 MPs) a right-wing government could count on 32 seats in Parliament. However, it is highly unlikely that Restoration would work with the People's Party – and Bjarni Benediktsson, the chairman of the Independence Party, has said the party rejects large coalition governments which rest on the support of small parties.
