The emergency evacuation plan that was set in motion in the area close to the Holuhraun eruption is based on the possibility of a sub-glacial eruption in Dyngjujökull outlet that could cause an outburst flood, or a jökulhlaup.
A surveillance flight was made over Dyngjujökull in the afternoon. No changes were visible on the surface of the ice cap and no signs of an ongoing sub-glacial eruption.
According to scientists at the Icelandic Met Office four scenarios are most likely.
- The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
- The dyke could reach the earth's surface causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Lava flow and (or) explosive activity cannot be excluded.
- The intrusion reaches the surface and another eruption occurs where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath the ice cap of Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum river and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
- A sub-glacial eruption in Bárðarbunga caldera in Vatnajökull glacier. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum river. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót river, Kaldakvísl river, Skaftá river and Grímsvötn caldera, also in vatnajökull glacier.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
The emergency evacuation plan that was set in motion in the area close to the Holuhraun eruption is based on the possibility of a sub-glacial eruption in Dyngjujökull outlet that could cause an outburst flood, or a jökulhlaup.
A surveillance flight was made over Dyngjujökull in the afternoon. No changes were visible on the surface of the ice cap and no signs of an ongoing sub-glacial eruption.
According to scientists at the Icelandic Met Office four scenarios are most likely.
- The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
- The dyke could reach the earth's surface causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Lava flow and (or) explosive activity cannot be excluded.
- The intrusion reaches the surface and another eruption occurs where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath the ice cap of Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum river and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
- A sub-glacial eruption in Bárðarbunga caldera in Vatnajökull glacier. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum river. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót river, Kaldakvísl river, Skaftá river and Grímsvötn caldera, also in vatnajökull glacier.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
