Yesterday Icelandic politics were shaken by one of the largest political scandals in recent history. The fallout from this shake-up promises to be even greater. The only thing which is certain is that Icelandic voters will be going to the polls soon. It is unclear, however, what will happen in the lead-up to the elections and when those elections will be held and the outcome of those elections are anything bot predictable.
This latest scandal is only the final drop, as the coalition government had already become one of the least popular coalition governments in Icelandic history.
Read more: Analysis: Despite a booming economy Icelandic government enjoys just 25% approval rating
Both junior coalition partners, the liberal right wing Restoration, and the centrist Bright Future have now announced they will no longer support the government of Bjarni Benediktsson, the chairman of the conservative Independence Party. Yesterday it was revealed that Bjarni's father had signed off on a letter vouching for the character of one of Iceland's most notorious child molesters, supporting his application for full pardon and restoration of honor. Bjarni and the Minister of the Interior, Sigríður Á Andersen had kept this information from parliament and the public despite the fact that they were not legally obliged to.
What happens next?
The center-right coalition only has a one seat majority in parliament (32 seats out of 63), and therefore cannot survive even a single defection. The conservative Independence Party has 21 MPs, Restoration currently has 7 and Bright Future 4. The Independence Party would have a hard time forming a workable coalition government without the support of the two parties. But at the same time the political opposition might face an uphill battle when it comes to forming a new majority. The drawn-out negotiations on the formation of a coalition government following the October 2016 elections are a testament to how difficult it is to form a stable coalition with the make-up of parliament.
Read more: The stalemate in Icelandic politics: What' going on and why is there no coalition in sight?
Political observers and analysts in Iceland, and the leaders of all parties, except the Independence Party, have also come saying early elections are necessary. Leaders of the Independence Party, including Sigríður Á Andersen, who is at the heart of the scandal which brought down the government, have described the decision by Bright Future as an irresponsible act by this tiny party. Bjarni enjoys the full confidence of the party, the local news site Vísir reports.
When will elections be held?
It is not clear whether the conservative Independence party can form a temporary placeholder government which could hold the reins until elections are held.
Benedikt Jóhannesson, the chairman of Restoration, and the nephew of Bjarni Benediktsson, has been unwilling to answer whether he or his party would be willing to support a government with the Independence Party. In an interview with the National Broadcasting Service RÚV Benedikt refused to answer the question on four different occasions. He did, however, stress that the whole case was horrifying and that he had only learned of the involvement of Bjarni's father yesterday. Benedikt also stressed that new elections would have to be held. Other members of the leadership of Restoration agree that elections are necessary.
Bright Future or its leadership have not revealed how they envision the next few months or when they expect new elections to be held.
The chairman of the center-right opposition Progress Party told RÚV that new elections would have to be held, and that his party would not be willing to provide the Independence Party with support in the lead-up to the elections. The chairman of the small Social Democratic Party has made similar statements, as has the leadership of the Left Green Movement. The former chairman of the Left-Greens said he believes elections could be held as soon as October.
Right wing populists could make major gains
One thing is certain: Early elections will cause a further shake-up of Icelandic politics. The political opposition, especially the left, have been making solid gains in the polls in recent months, primarily due to the deep unpopularity of Bjarni Benediktsson's government.
Read more: Support for ruling right-wing coalition government continues to slip, left makes solid gains
However, two dark horses might shake things up even further. A newly founded right-wing populist party, The People's Party, which has cultivated fear of asylum seekers as well as anger over economic injustice and poverty, has done very well in recent polls. The most recent poll showed that 11% of voters support the party. If elections were held today this means the party could get 7 MPs potentially holding the key to forming a new government.
The other dark horse candidate is the newly founded Socialist Party which could potentially split the left-wing vote. Although polls have yet to gauge it's support among the voters it is safe to say that after the 2008 financial crash there is a fertile ground for economic populism and anti-establishment politics in Iceland.
Yesterday Icelandic politics were shaken by one of the largest political scandals in recent history. The fallout from this shake-up promises to be even greater. The only thing which is certain is that Icelandic voters will be going to the polls soon. It is unclear, however, what will happen in the lead-up to the elections and when those elections will be held and the outcome of those elections are anything bot predictable.
This latest scandal is only the final drop, as the coalition government had already become one of the least popular coalition governments in Icelandic history.
Read more: Analysis: Despite a booming economy Icelandic government enjoys just 25% approval rating
Both junior coalition partners, the liberal right wing Restoration, and the centrist Bright Future have now announced they will no longer support the government of Bjarni Benediktsson, the chairman of the conservative Independence Party. Yesterday it was revealed that Bjarni's father had signed off on a letter vouching for the character of one of Iceland's most notorious child molesters, supporting his application for full pardon and restoration of honor. Bjarni and the Minister of the Interior, Sigríður Á Andersen had kept this information from parliament and the public despite the fact that they were not legally obliged to.
What happens next?
The center-right coalition only has a one seat majority in parliament (32 seats out of 63), and therefore cannot survive even a single defection. The conservative Independence Party has 21 MPs, Restoration currently has 7 and Bright Future 4. The Independence Party would have a hard time forming a workable coalition government without the support of the two parties. But at the same time the political opposition might face an uphill battle when it comes to forming a new majority. The drawn-out negotiations on the formation of a coalition government following the October 2016 elections are a testament to how difficult it is to form a stable coalition with the make-up of parliament.
Read more: The stalemate in Icelandic politics: What' going on and why is there no coalition in sight?
Political observers and analysts in Iceland, and the leaders of all parties, except the Independence Party, have also come saying early elections are necessary. Leaders of the Independence Party, including Sigríður Á Andersen, who is at the heart of the scandal which brought down the government, have described the decision by Bright Future as an irresponsible act by this tiny party. Bjarni enjoys the full confidence of the party, the local news site Vísir reports.
When will elections be held?
It is not clear whether the conservative Independence party can form a temporary placeholder government which could hold the reins until elections are held.
Benedikt Jóhannesson, the chairman of Restoration, and the nephew of Bjarni Benediktsson, has been unwilling to answer whether he or his party would be willing to support a government with the Independence Party. In an interview with the National Broadcasting Service RÚV Benedikt refused to answer the question on four different occasions. He did, however, stress that the whole case was horrifying and that he had only learned of the involvement of Bjarni's father yesterday. Benedikt also stressed that new elections would have to be held. Other members of the leadership of Restoration agree that elections are necessary.
Bright Future or its leadership have not revealed how they envision the next few months or when they expect new elections to be held.
The chairman of the center-right opposition Progress Party told RÚV that new elections would have to be held, and that his party would not be willing to provide the Independence Party with support in the lead-up to the elections. The chairman of the small Social Democratic Party has made similar statements, as has the leadership of the Left Green Movement. The former chairman of the Left-Greens said he believes elections could be held as soon as October.
Right wing populists could make major gains
One thing is certain: Early elections will cause a further shake-up of Icelandic politics. The political opposition, especially the left, have been making solid gains in the polls in recent months, primarily due to the deep unpopularity of Bjarni Benediktsson's government.
Read more: Support for ruling right-wing coalition government continues to slip, left makes solid gains
However, two dark horses might shake things up even further. A newly founded right-wing populist party, The People's Party, which has cultivated fear of asylum seekers as well as anger over economic injustice and poverty, has done very well in recent polls. The most recent poll showed that 11% of voters support the party. If elections were held today this means the party could get 7 MPs potentially holding the key to forming a new government.
The other dark horse candidate is the newly founded Socialist Party which could potentially split the left-wing vote. Although polls have yet to gauge it's support among the voters it is safe to say that after the 2008 financial crash there is a fertile ground for economic populism and anti-establishment politics in Iceland.
